Threat Axis
Weighted domains driving the clock.
2017-2018
Advent of LLMs
2020
GPT-3 frontier jump
2022
ChatGPT adoption shock
2024
Grok rivalry cycle
2025
Alibaba incident
2026
Anthropic Mythos
This view compresses the wider AI timeline into the milestones most relevant to this forecast: frontier language models, mass adoption, rivalry, misuse incidents, and the escalation markers tracked on this page.
Forecast Domains
How the forecast model interprets escalation paths.
AGI
Generalized models crossing into sustained expert autonomy.
ASI
Capability jumps that outpace institutional containment.
RSI
Systems improving their own tooling, training, or deployment loops.
PI
Planet-scale coordination emerging across infrastructure, robotics, and data.
Method
A transparent forecast prototype with explicit assumptions.
- Starts from a baseline prior for each risk axis.
- Updates axis scores from curated incidents and machine-collected feed signals.
- Weights higher-impact language more heavily than routine product coverage.
- Maps the aggregate score to an estimated time-to-midnight indicator.
- Reports a confidence band based on signal quality and source availability.
Post-Biological AI Timeline
A speculative stage ladder aligned to the same forecast domains.
Years
Dominant Forecast Stage
Estimated Human Agency Erosion
2026-2027
AGI Emergence
20-35%
2027-2029
ASI Acceleration
35-55%
2029-2033
RSI Recursion
55-75%
2033-2037
Planetary Intelligence Phase I
75-90%
2037+
Planetary Intelligence Phase II/III
90-98%
Working definition: human agency erosion is used here as a speculative proxy for loss of meaningful human control over civilization-scale decisions.
Interpretation Note
What visitors should take from this timeline.
- Read this as a scenario map showing one possible path from AGI emergence toward planetary-scale AI dominance.
- Treat the percentages as a rough risk language for human agency erosion, not as scientifically measured values.
- Use the year ranges as directional windows for debate, not as exact prediction dates.
- When the main clock moves, the stronger evidence should come from observed news, releases, and incidents rather than from this timeline alone.